The Economic Front

      Though the future path of the war in Ukraine is still uncertain, it is a safe bet that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is going to provoke a long-term economic conflict between the NATO members and Russia. Indeed, such a conflict has been under way since 2014, and the threats of sanctioning preceding the invasion can be properly considered an evolution of the conflict. Now that the shooting war has started, the economic efforts are now shifting from punishing Russia for past actions and deterring future ones to compelling Russia to change policy, weakening Russia's military capability, and undermining Putin's regime. Though I don't want to get hung up on the term, it is the beginning of an economic war and, given the nature of the global economy, the impact of it are not going to be limited to Ukraine, Russia and NATO. Instead, no nation that is engaged in the global economy will be insulated from the impacts of the conflict. More importantly,  this will be a g...